FINANCIALS: DNB Results 11-Jul: Oil Price Strength vs. Revenue Outlook

DNB (DNBNO: A2/A) 2Q24 results are due 11-Jul. Brent crude prices have been a solid forward indicator for DNB equity over the last year and the recent recovery towards the mid-$80 region highlights this. Norwegian banking newsflow has been light so the question here is about any potential upgrade to guidance after the marginally better NPL and macro commentary given last time around, we feel.

• 1Q24 results (23-Apr) were credit positive with NPLs and loan losses better than expected and the macro commentary appeared a little more resilient than the prior results. Revenues did miss marginally, however. The credit had lagged peers by 5-6bp from the start of the year to these results.
• Since those results, cash credit is 6bp tighter (index flat) reflecting the bank’s broad credit outperformance this year. The equity, which had a weaker 1Q24, has broadly tracked the banks index since results but has put some small (6pp) outperformance in across the French risk-off event.
• Earnings: revenues have been cut 1-2% since last time around but EPS estimates are 2% better for this year but unchanged for FY25.

Results are due 0630 (London time) with an 0830 press conference. The main analyst call is 1230, available at: https://events.webcast.no/dnb/zaEeS9WUTiwEQDAw15I3/yvnpIDppLhhDFvNofPVB