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Free AccessFINANCIALS: Fitch Bulletin On UniCredit’s Commerzbank Stake
- UniCredit’s acquisition of a 21% stake in Commerzbank won’t affect rating, but a full takeover would improve the profile if risks are managed.
- The 21% stake would reduce the CET1 ratio by <150bps while a 29.9% stake would reduce it by <200bp, with the bank expected to maintain a CET1 ratio above 16% by year-end.
- A full takeover would shift UniCredit’s exposure towards Germany (30%-35% of revenue), reducing reliance on Italy, strengthening its business profile and improving asset quality.
- UniCredit could capture significant cost synergies by aligning Commerzbank’s 60% cost/income ratio with the 40% reached at UniCredit.
- UniCredit’s strong capital position (EUR 6.5bn excess above CET1 target) allows for flexibility in financing, but integration challenges would mean that Unicredit falls short of the forecasted 3.5-4% Op Profit to RWA in 2024-2026.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.