FINANCIALS: Generali: P&C Claims Drive Pre-Tax Miss. No Positive Inflection Here

Generali (ASSGEN: Baa2/BBB+) results missed pre-tax consensus on higher P&C claims albeit with some decent top line growth figures. Credit stats are rather mixed with Solvency II ratio missing. Spreads have marginally underperformed into results and we see no reason for a positive inflection point here.

• Credit stats: Solvency II ratio is 2pp below consensus (211% vs. 213% est.) and 4pp lower than at Mar-24 but this does include the new EUR500m equity buyback. Shareholders’ equity is around EUR1bn (3%) lower than at Mar-24, too, and the CSM is just under 1% lower in the quarter but is a little ahead of consensus. So, slightly mixed overall.
• This is a story of two halves with a decent sales/revenue outturn but life margin erosion and, more importantly, higher claims costs incl. NatCat, offsetting. The operating result was a c.6% miss vs. consensus with life only in line and P&C accounting for most of the miss.
• Looking forwards, mgmt does allude to “tariff strengthening” in P&C, which aims to protect profit generation but does seem relatively comfortable with good life sales, even at lower margins. There are few other forward guidance elements in here.

Conf call is 1100 (London time) at: https://services.choruscall.it/DiamondPassRegistration/register?confirmationNumber=1613081&linkSecurityString=327718a1e