FINANCIALS: JPM Results 12-Jul; Expectations Running Post-JEF

JPM (JPM: A1/A-/AA) reports 2Q24 results on 12-Jul which, after Jefferies results and a recent run in the equity, have a degree of expectation built in already, we feel.

• Results last time (12-Apr) beat on headline numbers but forward guidance looked sub-consensus, especially on revenues. The equity was down on the day but soon recovered at least some of the drop.
• Jefferies results beat consensus and has seen expectations around IB revenues rise, echoing comments made at industry conferences during the quarter. The bank did quietly upgrade revenue guidance around 1% (on 20-May). FRTB has been in the news as US banks’ lobbying has pushed US regulators to postpone this into 2026 – the obvious excess capital questions are likely to arise, as a result but mgmt has already announced a new USD30bn buyback (28-Jun).
• Since results, EUR cash bonds are 6bp tighter, whereas €IG banks are broadly flat with this US bank outperforming the European political risk sell-off. The equity is marginally ahead of the Eurobanks index but much of that performance has come over the last week – expectations are clearly running.
• Earnings estimates have actually drifted gently upwards, 2-3% for EPS and 1-2% for revenues.

Results are due at 1200 (London time) with a 1330 conf call at: https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/events