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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FINANCIALS
Risk-on in financials, led by Aareal (ARLN GR) and, if we assume CRE quality isn’t a problem, the distance back to the price levels of Jan-24 for both Aareal and DePfa, remains meaningful.
- Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) CEO (speaking at the MS financials conference in London) indicated 2024 CRE provisioning to look similar to 2023. At FY23 results (on 1-Feb), mgmt upgraded the equity payout and consensus has moved 2-4% higher. The equity is better again today and the cash curve is c.7bp tighter.
- DePfa (PBB GY) and Aareal are seeing modest equity moves but 8bp and 13bp tightening of their curves (EuroIG constituents) bringing them to 1-month tights but still well off the levels they were trading at in Jan-24 (see graphic).
- As we noted earlier in our real estate comments, the high-beta Scandi issuers are moving tighter today, so a broad risk-on rally allaying the worst of recent CRE fears. We note NYC Bancorp closed its USD1bn equity raise last night, too.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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