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FINANCIALS: UCGIM Asking ECB For 30% CMZB Stake Permission

FINANCIALS
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Commerzbank (CMZB: Baa2 pos/BBB) – Unicredit (UCGIM: Baa3/BBB-/BBB-) has asked for ECB permission to move to 30% stake. We don’t see this happening imminently but, either way, credit implications are relatively limited unless CMZB becomes seen as easy prey for another large bank.

  • Il Messagero is reporting that UCGIM has asked the ECB for permission to raise its stake in Commerzbank to as much as 30%, citing unnamed sources. UCGIM did indicate it would ask permission to go above the c.9% currently committed, so it appears logical to ask the ECB for the full stake allowable before a full takeover has to be launched.
  • The situation remains highly politicised with DBK stepping in yesterday to indicate it would “mull options” pertaining to Commerzbank, which we understand to mean it could attempt to interfere, even though the German major still has plenty of organic restructuring to do, and has already considered, and ended, CMZB takeover talks before.
  • CMZB spreads have outperformed €IG peers by a few basis points since the stake purchase by UCGIM was announced, which we see as logical. With UCGIM slightly weaker rated there’s little obvious credit implication here now, absent another large bank coming in.
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Commerzbank (CMZB: Baa2 pos/BBB) – Unicredit (UCGIM: Baa3/BBB-/BBB-) has asked for ECB permission to move to 30% stake. We don’t see this happening imminently but, either way, credit implications are relatively limited unless CMZB becomes seen as easy prey for another large bank.

  • Il Messagero is reporting that UCGIM has asked the ECB for permission to raise its stake in Commerzbank to as much as 30%, citing unnamed sources. UCGIM did indicate it would ask permission to go above the c.9% currently committed, so it appears logical to ask the ECB for the full stake allowable before a full takeover has to be launched.
  • The situation remains highly politicised with DBK stepping in yesterday to indicate it would “mull options” pertaining to Commerzbank, which we understand to mean it could attempt to interfere, even though the German major still has plenty of organic restructuring to do, and has already considered, and ended, CMZB takeover talks before.
  • CMZB spreads have outperformed €IG peers by a few basis points since the stake purchase by UCGIM was announced, which we see as logical. With UCGIM slightly weaker rated there’s little obvious credit implication here now, absent another large bank coming in.