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Bullish Price Sequence


Corrective Pullback

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Supported by gains in the commodity complex, particularly iron ore, AUD finished with gains on Monday. AUD/USD retreated from 0.7290 during the Asia-Pac session yesterday, bounced of lows around 0.7250 to post fresh intraday highs around 0.7294. The pair last trading up 1 pip at 0.7287.

  • Iron ore has rallied for five straight days, extending its rebound from the lowest levels in over 12 months, with touted demand from Chinese steel mills ahead of a holiday in China next week. Iron ore prices remain almost $100/ton below the peak hit in May this year.
  • From a technical perspective AUD/USD rebounded Thursday and has tested the 20-day EMA. A resumption of gains would signal a reversal of the near-term downtrend that for now remains intact and continues to target 0.7220 ahead of Fibonacci support at 0.7194. The bear trigger rests below at 0.7106, Aug 20 low - a break would confirm a resumption of the bear trend that started late February. Firm resistance is seen at 0.7353, the 50-day EMA.
  • Retail sales headline the economic docket on Tuesday, further down the line this week brings private sector credit and PMI data.