Finland, Sweden Submit Official Applications; Turkey Still Stands In Way

Earlier this morning Sweden and Finland's ambassadors to NATO officially submitted their respetive nations' applications to join the alliance to Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. However, there remains a sizeable obstacle in both Sweden and Finland's path to NATO accession in the form of Turkey.

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that both Nordic states 'should not bother' seeking to join the alliance, due to their alleged role as 'incubators' for terrorist groups (referring primarily to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)).
• What could convince Erdogan to change course? Both nations (primarily Sweden) would likely have to make some kind of concession to the Turkish gov't on alleged PKK members living in the Nordic nations. Difficult for Swedish gov't given election in September and PM Andersson's Social Democrats facing backlash from the left after jettisoning neutrality and joining NATO. However, likely seen as a 'price worth paying', allows Erdogan to ease domestic concerns about Kurdish groups in other NATO states.
• Erdogan also likely seeking a reversal of US decision to end Turkish involvement in F-35 fighter jet programme, and allow Turkish purchase of new F-16 jets. These plans were ended by US following Turkish purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems. President Biden has expressed support, but Turkey's actions regarding Sweden and Finland could prove too much for a Congress already wary of Erdogan's authoritarian shift in recent years. Turkish FM Cavusoglu in US today to talk to Secretary of State Blinken.
• Likelihood remains that Turkey will allow Sweden and Finland to join the alliance in time for a photocall at June NATO leaders' summit in Madrid. However, Erdogan has proved unpredictible and irascible towards the West in the past, and a major flare-up could occur if he holds his ground.