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FinMin Expects GDP To Grow by 5.9% in 2022

HUNGARY
  • The Finance Ministry says that it expects the Hungarian economy to grow by 5.9% in 2022.
  • Last week, NBH increased its 1W depo rate by 20bps to 3.8% (vs. 3.7% exp.) to continue to curb the inflationary pressures and also limit the HUF depreciation.
  • The central bank hiked its 1W depo rate, also considered as the effective policy rate, for the sixth consecutive time, currently standing 120bps above the ‘core’ policy rate (2.4%).
  • As mentioned previously, we expect the 1W depo rate to reach the 4% level in early 2022 and then the policy rate to gradually converge towards the 1W depo rate through H1 2022 (30bps monthly hikes for core policy rate).
  • However, a sustained HUF weakness could also prolong the NBH tightening cycle, ‘pressuring’ policymakers to increase the terminal rate (towards 4.5%).
  • As a reminder, weakening HUF keeps supporting inflation expectations and therefore increases inflation risks in the near term, which was called a ‘public enemy’ by Hungarian policymakers.

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