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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessFinMin Expects GDP To Grow by 5.9% in 2022
- The Finance Ministry says that it expects the Hungarian economy to grow by 5.9% in 2022.
- Last week, NBH increased its 1W depo rate by 20bps to 3.8% (vs. 3.7% exp.) to continue to curb the inflationary pressures and also limit the HUF depreciation.
- The central bank hiked its 1W depo rate, also considered as the effective policy rate, for the sixth consecutive time, currently standing 120bps above the ‘core’ policy rate (2.4%).
- As mentioned previously, we expect the 1W depo rate to reach the 4% level in early 2022 and then the policy rate to gradually converge towards the 1W depo rate through H1 2022 (30bps monthly hikes for core policy rate).
- However, a sustained HUF weakness could also prolong the NBH tightening cycle, ‘pressuring’ policymakers to increase the terminal rate (towards 4.5%).
- As a reminder, weakening HUF keeps supporting inflation expectations and therefore increases inflation risks in the near term, which was called a ‘public enemy’ by Hungarian policymakers.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.