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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessFirmer After Surprise Fall In Headline Employment
ACGBS firm in lieu of softer than expected labour market data, which saw a surprise fall in the headline employment print (only 2 of the 25 analysts surveyed by BBG ahead of the release looked for a decrease in headline employment), although that was a product of a reduction in part-time employment.
- The unemployment rate nudged 0.1ppt higher even as the participation rate unexpectedly fell by 0.2ppt. Underutilisation and underemployment both ticked away from their respective cycle bases, but are very supressed in a historical sense.
- Hours worked fell by 0.5% for a second consecutive month with the ABS noting that “we saw the number of people working reduced hours due to illness increasing by 86,000 to 606,000, which is over 50% higher than we would usually see at this time of the year.”
- This release doesn’t meaningfully alter the extremely tight picture projected by the labour market, so shouldn’t impact RBA policy moves in isolation.
- YM is +16.0 while XM is +18.0, with both contracts through their overnight high. Cash ACGBs run 16.0-17.5bp richer, with the 10- to 12-Year zone still leading. EFPs remain wider on the day, but are off session extremes. Bills run 7-19bp richer through the reds, also surging post-data. RBA dated OIS comes in a little more, with ~16bp of tightening now priced for next month, alongside a terminal cash rate of just under 3.60%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.