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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Firmer Ahead Tuesday Data, ECB CB Forum in Sintra, Portugal
- Treasury futures holding modestly firmer after the bell, near the lower half of a narrow session range - no particular headline driver for futures reversal off early session highs, however.
- Some factors at play. however, included incoming Treasury auctions ($65B 13W, $58B 26W bill auctions, $42B 2Y Note auction -- trades through: 4.670% high yield vs. 4.680% WI), while a pick-up in high-grade corporate debt issuance could be a factor for the dip in Treasury futures amid rate lock-hedge sales.
- Early month/quarter-end positioning also mentioned, with nascent asset allocation from Treasury futures to stocks. Underscoring this morning's retreat, the Sep'23 10Y contract trend outlook remains bearish. Recently, support at 112-29+, the May 26 / 30 low.
- Treasury curves extend inversion this morning, 2s10s taps -104.521 low, nearing March 40+ low around -111.0. “Although the cash curves are closing in on recent troughs," Goldman Sachs analysts write the "OIS and SOFR swap curves are still some distance away. Some of this weakness is likely the result of an anticipation of heavy front-end supply, but we expect it will not remain contained to front-end swap spreads as the full extent of supply increases becomes clear.”
- Economic data picks Tuesday: Durable Goods, Housing Metrics, Cons Confidence. While there is a dearth of scheduled Fed speakers Tuesday, attention will be on the ECB's forum on central banking in Sintra, Portugal that kicks off tonight with ECB Pres Lagarde. LINK.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.