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Firmer As Goldman Remove Call For 25bp Hike

US TSYS
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News that Goldman Sachs no longer looks for a hike from the Fed later this month (although they leave their 25bp hike calls for the May, June & July meetings pencilled in, albeit with considerable uncertainty cited) has provided a fresh leg of support for the space. Cash Tsys now sit 25bp richer to 2bp cheaper across the curve, with twist steepening in play as only 20+-Year paper sits higher in yield terms on the day. Futures firm across the curve, but don’t challenge session highs. Fed-dated OIS now prices 23bp of tightening for next week’s meeting, after pricing ~43.5bp of tightening at one point last week. This is the first time since 7 Feb that pricing for the meeting has showed below 25bp. Terminal rate pricing hovers around 5.05%, trimming over 20bp on the day, while ~40bp of cuts is now priced into the FOMC-dated OIS strip by year end (from the terminal rate).

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News that Goldman Sachs no longer looks for a hike from the Fed later this month (although they leave their 25bp hike calls for the May, June & July meetings pencilled in, albeit with considerable uncertainty cited) has provided a fresh leg of support for the space. Cash Tsys now sit 25bp richer to 2bp cheaper across the curve, with twist steepening in play as only 20+-Year paper sits higher in yield terms on the day. Futures firm across the curve, but don’t challenge session highs. Fed-dated OIS now prices 23bp of tightening for next week’s meeting, after pricing ~43.5bp of tightening at one point last week. This is the first time since 7 Feb that pricing for the meeting has showed below 25bp. Terminal rate pricing hovers around 5.05%, trimming over 20bp on the day, while ~40bp of cuts is now priced into the FOMC-dated OIS strip by year end (from the terminal rate).