Firmer & Flatter To Start

TYU3 deals +0-05, just off the high of a narrow 0-07 range, while cash Tsys print 1.5-4.0bp richer as the curve bull flattens.

• This comes after TY futures found support ahead of a key technical level on Tuesday, while 10-Year yields sit around 7bp off yesterday’s fresh multi-year highs.
• 2s10s now sits 10bp off Monday’s high, close to -75bp.
• Macro headline flow was light again in Asia, with global equity futures generally bid (China was the exception) and the USD nudging lower.
• Flash PMIs out of Europe and the UK will provide some pre-NY interest.
• The NY docket includes the U.S. flash PMIs, MBA mortgage apps and new home sales data.
• Elsewhere, 2-Year FRN and 20-Year Tsy supply is scheduled.
• We also flag that the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for 1Q23 is due at 1000ET. It will provide the preliminary annual benchmark estimate for the establishment survey data, i.e. including the level of payrolls, over the twelve months up to March 2023 (see more on that here & here).
• Finally, Nvidia earnings will cross after the NY cash close, with plenty of cross-market interest there given the company’s linkages to the AI sphere.