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Firmer/Inside Range, Build Permits Miss, UofM Expectations Firmer

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are holding modestly higher after the bell, inside the early session range after some modest data driven volatility. Rates held near early highs after Building permits disappointed in July at 1396k (cons 1425k) after a mildly upward revised 1454k (1446k).
  • Tsys ratcheted lower into/after University of Michigan inflation expectations were a tenth stronger than expected for both 1Y and 5-10Y measures but remain in recent ranges.
  • Meanwhile, the BLS state household survey data showed another decline in the share of states that have triggered the Sahm Rule threshold, down to 30% in July from 34% in June and 42% in May.
  • Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures gained slightly on the week, currently at 113-04 (+5.5/day) vs. last Friday's 112-30.5 settle. Curves mildly steeper, 2s10s +.795 at -17.611, 5s30s +.370 at 38.171.
  • As such, short end rebound underpinned projected rate cuts into year end vs. this mornings pre-data levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -33.8bp (-33.8bp), Nov'24 cumulative -64.2bp (-62.0bp), Dec'24 -96.8bp (-93.5bp).
  • The KC Fed hosted Jackson Hole economic symposium "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy," will be held Aug. 22-24, Fed Chairman Powell speaking 1000ET Friday Morning.
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