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Firmer On German Fiscal Uncertainty and Oil Weakness

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade 0-2.5bp richer, having recently pulled further off session cheaps in moves seen linked to a core FI bid on German fiscal uncertainty along with a sharp step lower in oil with Hezbollah reportedly set to adhere to the short-term Israeli-Hamas ceasefire if the Israeli forces stick to it.
  • The bull flattening on the day sees 2s10s at -50bps for back in the middle of yesterday's range.
  • TYZ3 at 109-05 is close to the recent high of 109-06. The short-term trend structure remains bullish, with resistance at a nearby 109-08+ (Nov 17 high) and then 109-20 (Sep 19 high). Volumes stand at 335k, buoyed by the pick-up in roll volumes.
  • Data highlights today’s docket: weekly MBA data (0700ET), Weekly jobless claims including a payrolls reference week for initial (0830ET), durable goods Oct prelim (0830ET), U.Mich survey Nov final (1000ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $ 4W, $ 8W and $ 17W Bill auctions (1130ET)
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