Free Trial

Bullish Theme, Despite Week’s Weakness


BLOCK, 5Y Sale


MS: Adding An Extra 25bp Hike For May But Keep Existing Cuts Call


BLOCKs, Sep'23 SOFR Put Spd


USDCAD Whipsaws With Powell, Macklem Q&A Ahead

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Firmer Post-RBA On 25bp Hike & Mark Lower In Terminal Rate Pricing


Bonds firm vs. pre-RBA levels after the Bank delivered the widely expected 25bp rate hike, with the pricing for a potential 50bp rate hike unwound (32bp of tightening was priced into dated OIS pre-decision). Cash ACGBs now print 1.5-5.5bp cheaper on the day, with bear steepening coming to the fore as the front-end benefits more from the 25bp rate hike and terminal cash rate pricing shifting ~10bp lower vs. pre-decision levels (per RBA dated OIS).

  • Outside of the 25bp rate hike we saw the Bank mark its CPI forecast higher alongside a downgrade in its economic growth forecasts.
  • Elsewhere, the Bank presented well-defined risks to its outlook that it had flagged before, in addition to reaffirming the idea that it looking to return inflation to its 2-3 target band “over time. It is seeking to do this while keeping the economy on an even keel. The path to achieving this balance remains a narrow one and it is clouded in uncertainty.”
  • There was a more explicit reference to the Bank’s acknowledgement of the lagged impact of monetary policy, which may have weighed on OIS pricing of the RBA tightening cycle further.
  • The Board also noted that it has “increased interest rates materially since May,” which some of the more dovish RBA watchers will flag as a signal that end of the Bank’s hiking cycle is nearing, another potential source of receiver side flows in OIS.
  • The Bank reaffirmed that it “expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead,” with familiar inputs into its decision making process highlighted.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.