Firmer, TY Futures In Yesterday's Ranges

The rally in European bonds lends support to Tsys, although TYM4 sticks to yesterday’s range.

• Franch production data initially helped EGBs higher, before firmer-than-expected Spanish PMI readings capped the move.
• TYM4 last +0-06 at 110-30 (110-23-111-00 range).
• Next resistance comes in at the Mar 4/1 highs (111-01/02).
• Cash Tsy yields 2.0-2.5bp lower across the curve in a parallel shift.
• Services ISM data headlines the U.S. calendar today, although more focus falls on this week’s testimony from Fed Chair Powell & Friday’s NFP release.
• FOMC-dated OIS is little changed to a touch softer on the day, showing ~85bp of ’24 cuts, with ~20bp of cuts priced through June ’24.
• Fed Governor Barr will make a couple of appearances today, although they will be centred on regulatory matters so are unlikely to be too market moving re: Fed pricing.