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Firms Above $1.07, Rate Differentials Narrow

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD firmed above $1.07 on Friday, the pair has firmed ~1% off last week's lows.

  • Rate differentials, observed via 2-year swap rates, narrowed on Friday to -139bps having printed as wide at -160bps last week.
  • Despite the rally on Friday we still remain in a downtrend, bears look to target year to date lows at $1.0588, a break through here opens 2022 lows $1.0471.
  • Bulls first look to break the 20-Day EMA ($1.0753) to turn the tide.
  • Looking ahead this week we have NAB Business Survey (Monday) and Retail Sales (Tuesday) headlining the data calendar in Australia as well as the Federal budget. In New Zealand we have Card Spending, Food Prices, Manufacturing PMI and 2 Year Inflation Expectations scheduled to cross.
Fig1: AU NZ 2 Year Swap vs AUD/NZD Daily Spot

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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