First Estimate GDP (Q1 2020) Preview -......>

UK DATA: First Estimate GDP (Q1 2020) Preview - 0700BST 

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- GDP: -2.5% q/q, -2.1% y/y; Prev(Q4) 0.0% q/q, 1.1% y/y 

- GDP is seen contracting 2.5% q/q in Q1, while the y/y rate is projected to

drop 2.1%, slightly above the BOE's projection of a 3% q/q contraction. 

- 2019 ended on a weak note, with q/q GDP coming in flat, while annual growth

fell to 1.1%, its slowest since Q1 2018. 

- H'hold consumption was already flatlining in Q4 and business investment

slipped to -0.5%, both figures are likely to fall in Q1. 

- Activity eased early Mar: Retail sales plunged 5.1% in Mar after Feb's 0.3%

downtick, fully offsetting Jan's 1.2% gain and resulting in a 1.5% q/q fall. 

- The BOE's decision maker panel noted that sales are projected to be 45% lower

than normal in Q2 and business investment 50% lower. 

- Consumer conf. plunged at the end of Mar and remained at low levels in Apr. 

- The BOE has pencilled in a 25% decline in Q2 2020, but sees GDP picking up

relatively rapidly as social distancing measures ease.