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First Inversion In 5s30s Since 2006

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields are off earlier highs but have still seen a sizeable bear flattening, driving the curve to new recent flats and in the case of 5s30s, the first inversion since 2006.
  • A two-stage lockdown in Shanghai and the further inflationary pressure this could have helped drive the overnight sell-off, only partially reversed by Russia downplaying the chances of Putin and Zelensky meeting, noting a lack of progress in talks and noting Biden’s statements on Putin as being alarming.
  • 2YY +7.1bps at 2.340%, 5YY +5.1bps at 2.596%, 10YY +1.5bps at 2.488%, 30YY +0.3bps at 2.588%.
  • TYM2 sits 4 ticks lower on the day at 121-13+, but off an earlier low of 120-30+ which now forms first support just above 120-28, the continuation of the Dec 26, 2018 low. Volumes are solid for the day as a whole but have slowed down in recent trading.
  • Data: Second tier data releases with wholesale & retail inventories, the advance goods trade balance and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $50B 2Y Note auction (1130ET) and US Tsy $51B 5Y Note auction (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $57B 13W, $48B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)

US 2s10s and 5s30s Tsy curvesSource: Bloomberg


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