Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Voting is underway in the first round of the Conservative leadership contest to decide the next party leader and prime minister. Voting started at 1330BST and finishes at 1530BST, with the result expected around 1700BST (1200ET, 1800CET).
- In the first round, candidates require the backing of 30 MPs to make it through to the second round. Any candidates below this threshold will be eliminated from the contest. Should all candidates make the 30 MP threshold the individual with the lowest total will be the one who exits the race.
- Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss all look certain to make the second round. But for Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, former Foreign Secretaty Jeremy Hunt, former Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch, Attorney General Suella Braverman, and Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee Tom Tugendhat their public support remains below 30, putting them at risk.
- Latest polling of Conservative party members shows Mordaunt leading in all head-to-head matchups should she make the final round run-off, with Sunak the second-best performing candidate (see chart below).
Chart 1. Opinion Poll, Which of the Following Two Candidates Would You Like To See As Next Party Leader? %
Source: YouGov. Sample: 879 Conservative party members, Fieldwork: 12-13 July
- Mordaunt favourite in betting markets after release of the above poll, with a 53.5% implied probability of becoming leader according to Smarkets. Sunak second on 22.2% and Truss third on 19.6%.
Chart 2. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next Conservative Party Leader, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok