Fiscal Rule Deal Comes Into View As France/Germany Agree; ECOFIN @ 1600CET

Following the announcement of an agreement between French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and his German counterpart Christian Lindner regarding EU fiscal rule reform on the evening of 19 Dec, the prospect of EU finance ministers signing off on the deal at today's informal ECOFIN meeting has risen. The meeting gets underway virtually at 1600CET (1000ET, 1500GMT).

• After both Le Maire and Lindner placed the level of agreement in the low 90%'s after the ECOFIN meeting of 7-8 Dec, in a post on X, Le Maire stated that "We have this evening reached a 100% agreement with (Christian Lindner) on the new rules for the Stability and Growth Pact,"
• An agreement between the two largest EU economies on reform to fiscal rules does not guarantee a deal at today's meeting, with Italy - which alongside France runs a deficit above the 3% of GDP limited by the SGP - concerned about being placed under the Excessive Deficit Procedure in 2024.
• If a deal is signed off at the ECOFIN meeting, it will have to get through the European Parliament early in 2024 before MEP's focus turns to the June 2024 European Parliament elections.