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Fitch Say Fiscal Forecasts Unaffected By Tax Reform, Ocampo On growth

COLOMBIA
  • Colombia’s latest tax reform does not affect Fitch’s fiscal forecasts as the additional revenues will be used to fund higher social spending in line with the policies of President Gustavo Petro, the ratings agency said in a note Wednesday.
    • Additionally, strategists are questioning whether the any of the additional revenue will be used to lower the fiscal deficit.
  • Finance Minister Jose Antonio Ocampo, speaking at a Forbes magazine event on Wednesday said that the world economy will face a strong slowdown next year, but Latin America and particularly Colombia will be less affected.
    • Economic forecasts from multilateral institutions point to Colombia growing around 2%
    • 3Q GDP growth figures were positive, but there’s concern over the agriculture sector’s performance. September’s ISE economic indicator “wasn’t that positive”.
  • Recapping the latest BanRep Economist Survey Results:
    • Economists believe the next rate move to be a 100 bps increase in Dec. 2022
    • 12-mth inflation raised to 7.67% from 7.27%, 24-mth inflation cut to 4.24% from 4.50%
    • 2022 year-end inflation raised to 12.22% from 11.88%, 2023 forecast raised to 7.50% from 6.74%
    • 2022 year-end exchange rate raised to 4800 from 4445 COP/USD, 2023 raised to 4600 from 4300 COP/USD (BBG)
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