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Fitch Sees Policy Rate Peaking at 50% This Year

TURKEY
  • Fitch Ratings expects Turkey’s central bank to further raise interest rates after March and sees the policy rate peaking at 50% this year, the company’s Turkey analyst Erich Arispe Morales said in a webinar, as per Bloomberg.
  • The message from the central bank on the policy path has been clear as policymakers said they will tighten monetary policy in case of a deviation from expected trajectory of inflation, and “This will likely be the case after March,” Morales said.
  • Fitch also views the decline in Turkey’s international reserves in recent weeks as “temporary”, and expects Turkey’s net gold imports to “substantially” decline in 2024 and 2025.
  • Note the ratings agency upgraded the long-term foreign-currency rating of Turkey to 'B+' from 'B', and the outlook to ‘Positive’ in a review last week.

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