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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessFive-Thirty-Eight: Biden Has 71% Chance Of Winning White House
Prominent opinion pollster Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com released its first Election Forecast earlier on August 12 (Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/), giving presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden a 71% chance of winning the White House.
- In Silver's own analysis he says it is "way too soon to count Trump out" (Link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-way-too-soon-to-count-trump-out/), but that "If the election were held today, he [Biden] might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition."
- Five-Thirty-Eight ran their election model 40,000 times, with Biden winning 71% of the time and Trump 29% of the time.
- With regards to the overall popular vote, Biden is given a 81% chance of winning the popular vote, compared to a 19% chance of Trump winning more actual votes than Biden. In 2016, Hilary Clinton won the popular vote despite Trump winning the Electoral College vote and therefore the White House.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.