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Five-Thirty-Eight: Biden Has 71% Chance Of Winning White House

US

Prominent opinion pollster Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com released its first Election Forecast earlier on August 12 (Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/), giving presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden a 71% chance of winning the White House.

  • In Silver's own analysis he says it is "way too soon to count Trump out" (Link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-way-too-soon-to-count-trump-out/), but that "If the election were held today, he [Biden] might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition."
  • Five-Thirty-Eight ran their election model 40,000 times, with Biden winning 71% of the time and Trump 29% of the time.
  • With regards to the overall popular vote, Biden is given a 81% chance of winning the popular vote, compared to a 19% chance of Trump winning more actual votes than Biden. In 2016, Hilary Clinton won the popular vote despite Trump winning the Electoral College vote and therefore the White House.

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