Flat Start For SONIA Futures, Budget Eyed

SONIA futures are +0.5 to -1.0 through the blues, operating on low volume pre-gilt open.

• BoE-dated OIS is little changed to a touch firmer across ’24 contracts, showing 62.5bp of ’24 cuts.
• Fiscal speculation continues to do the rounds ahead of today’s Budget.
• The base case looks for a 2ppt cut to national income, while POLITICO reports have suggested that one Minister believes that there will be a 1ppt income tax cut (we assign a relatively low probability to the latter).
• Meanwhile, other reports have suggested that an income tax cut could come later in the year and will feature in the Conservative Party’s election manifesto.
• Our full Budget preview can be found here.