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AUSSIE BONDS: Flat, Subdued Data-Light Session, Jun-31 Supply Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM -0.5) are little changed after a subdued session of trading. 

  • The local calendar has been empty today.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest losses.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bps.
  • Swap rates are 1bp higher.
  • The bills strip is -1 to -2 across contracts.
  • Given the very high correlations between NZ and Australian CPIs and their major components, there is information to be gained about the upcoming Q4 Australian data on January 29 from NZ’s Q4 data.
  • Given government electricity subsidies, it is difficult to compare the headline measures. However, the NZ data suggest there will be a further moderation in Australia’s trimmed mean inflation but possible upside risks to services, which is a particular focus of the RBA.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (110%), with the probability of a February cut at 71% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see S&P Global PMI(P) for January.
  • The AOFM plans to sell A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond tomorrow.
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM -0.5) are little changed after a subdued session of trading. 

  • The local calendar has been empty today.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest losses.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bps.
  • Swap rates are 1bp higher.
  • The bills strip is -1 to -2 across contracts.
  • Given the very high correlations between NZ and Australian CPIs and their major components, there is information to be gained about the upcoming Q4 Australian data on January 29 from NZ’s Q4 data.
  • Given government electricity subsidies, it is difficult to compare the headline measures. However, the NZ data suggest there will be a further moderation in Australia’s trimmed mean inflation but possible upside risks to services, which is a particular focus of the RBA.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (110%), with the probability of a February cut at 71% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see S&P Global PMI(P) for January.
  • The AOFM plans to sell A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond tomorrow.