FNN Poll Shows LDP's Sole Majority Is Under Threat

FNN have published the results of their nationwide opinion poll conducted over the weekend, which shows that the LDP cannot be certain of maintaining a simple majority in the House of Representatives and being able to govern alone after the October 31 election.

• The analysis notes that while in the proportional representation component of the election the LDP are expected to perform better than in the previous election, they are vulnerable in a number of single-seat districts, particularly in metropolitan areas such as Tokyo and Osaka.
• The ruling LDP/Komeito coalition is still expected to secure a simple majority, but may not reach the "absolute stable majority" (261 seats) needed to dominate all standing committees and appoint their chairpersons.
• FNN noted that in almost 20% of single-seat constituencies, the difference between the two leading candidates is within 5pp, which means that these races may be decided at the last minute.