MNI: BRAZIL'S COPOM RAISES SELIC RATE BY 100BPS TO 12.25%

MNI BRIEF: US Budget Deficit $367B In Nov; FYTD Record $624B

MNI BRIEF: Former BOC Dep Beaudry Sees 2.75%-3% Rate In 2025

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI:AUSTRALIA NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +3.9%

MNI: US NOV TREASURY BUDGET -$366.8B

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BTP Auction on Thursday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Focus on CPI After Market Shrugs Off PPI Gain

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are back near session highs after the bell, well off session lows when rates reacted poorly to PPI final demand MoM coming out higher than expected (0.5% vs 0.3% est), YoY steady vs. 2.2% est.; PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.4% vs 0.2% est), YoY steady vs. 2.2% est).
  • After Jun'24 10Y futures tapped a session low of 108-15 briefly before rebounding to early session high of 109-02 as markets digested softer airfare and insurance components and down revisions to prior data.
  • Midmorning focus turned to Fed Chairman Powell as he called for patience in allowing higher interest rates to do their work to slow the economy and bring inflation back to 2% but said his confidence in the path of disinflation has fallen.
  • Focus now turns to Wednesday's CPI, Retail Sales, TIC Flows and more Fed Speak. Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in April after a surprisingly strong Q1 averaging 0.37% M/M.
  • An upside surprise will dial up concerns that the Q1 acceleration wasn’t just a bump and could see 2Y Treasury yields eye 5% again, with the start point to Fed cuts pushed further out amidst a still high bar to a rate hike.
  • A downside surprise would still see sensitivity but the onus is on multiple low inflation readings before cut expectations are meaningfully brought nearer.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.