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Focus on ECB

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Wednesday's rejection from the $1.2158 level(61.8% $1.2233-1.2054) met support in the highlighted area between $1.2100-1.2075, albeit close to the base at $1.2077.
  • The hold above the $1.2075 allowed rate to recover initially to $1.2118, dipped to $1.2093 through the 1600GMT fix before it settled back above $1.2100 into the close.
  • EUR pullback was seen across the board, suggested on the back of position adjustments ahead of today's ECB monetary policy meeting. No change widely expected with main attention on Lagarde's press conference and any reference to EUR strength.
  • Asia picked up the recovery taking rate up to $1.2138($1.2139 76.4% $1.2158-1.2077) ahead of the European open.
  • Support $1.2100 ahead of $1.2077/74, a break to expose the YTD low at $1.2054(Jan18).
  • Resistance $1.2139, a break exposing Wednesday's high at $1.2158. Break here to open a move toward $1.2167(38.2% $1.2349-1.2054) ahead of $1.2178/83 then $1.2200.
  • France Confidence and Italy Industrial data provide a curtain raiser to the ECB MonPol announcement at 1245GMT, ECB Lagarde press conference 1330GMT.
  • US Weekly Jobless Claims, Housing Starts/Permits and Phila.Fed due at 1330GMT.
  • EZ Consumer Confidence due at 1500GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD continues to trade below its 20-day EMA, at 1.2165 today. Recent gains do not alter the near-term outlook and a bearish corrective theme remains in place following the recent sell-off from 1.2349, Jan 6 high. The leg lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2011, Sep 1 high next and 1.1976, a Fibonacci retracement. Above the 20-day EMA, 1.2230 marks a firm resistance, Jan 11 high.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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