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Focus On March CPI Data, Peru Interest Rate Decision

LATAM
  • Attention will be on March CPI inflation data in Chile, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina next week, particularly given implications for interest rate cutting cycles. In Peru, the central bank will hold its latest monetary policy meeting, where recent stronger-than-expected CPI data could prompt the committee to extend the recent pause in the easing cycle.
    • Following two months of strong CPI data, Chile CPI inflation is expected to slow to 3.9% y/y in March, from 4.5%. Also on Monday, Chile March trade data will be released, while in Argentina, the central bank will publish its monthly expectations survey.
    • On Tuesday, attention will turn to March CPI inflation data in Mexico, where the headline rate is expected to edge up to 4.51% y/y, from 4.40%, while core inflation remains sticky at 4.63%. Argentina February IP data and the BCB’s weekly Focus survey will also cross.
    • March IPCA inflation data will be released in Brazil on Wednesday, with analysts looking for a slowdown in the headline rate to 4.00% y/y, from 4.50%. In Chile, the central bank will publish its latest economist survey.
    • Brazil retail sales data for February will be released on Thursday, alongside Mexico industrial production figures, also for February. After the market close, the BCRP may decide to extend the recent pause in its easing cycle following stronger than expected CPI inflation data.
    • On Friday, Argentina March CPI inflation will cross, with analysts looking for a further slowdown in the m/m rate.
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