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Focus On Taper Talk In Fed Minutes

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Deutsche Bank, ING and RBC are all looking to the upcoming Fed minutes primarily for any taper acceleration discussions. The minutes from the Nov 2-3 meeting will be published at 1400ET/1900GMT.
  • Deutsche Bank "will closely scrutinize the minutes for any discussion of economic conditions that may prompt policymakers to adjust their pace of tapering".
  • They are currently looking for two hikes in 2022 (Jul & Nov) before three in 2023 and three more in 2024.
  • ING look for "special attention to any discussion around the possible acceleration of the taper schedule after December".
  • Whilst noting that the meeting was prior to the strong CPI print, they note that "any additional sense of urgency on that topic will resonate with already skittish US markets".
  • RBC are focused on the prospects around speeding up taper. "Powell said the Fed reserves the right to speed up if necessary (it relishes its options). But we want to see the degree to which this is being considered".
  • They will also watch "for any discussion around lifting rates". Powell repeated in the presser that "there was a different set of criteria for hiking than there was for taper, but we will be curious to see the extent to which folks around the table think the same thing".


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