Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Following the 22 Nov general election, focus will now turn to the labyrinthine coalition negotiations that will take place over the coming days, weeks, and likely months before a new gov't comes into place. Following the strong result for Geert Wilders' right-wing nationalist Party for Freedom (PVV), winning a plurality with 37 seats, focus will likely turn to the centre-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the centrist New Social Contract (NSC).
- Holding 24 and 20 seats respectively in the new House of Representatives, if the VVD and NSC went into gov't with the PVV it would be enough to secure a majority. Before the election, VVD head Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius and NSC founder Pieter Omtzigt both indicated they were unlikely to work with Wilders' PVV due to his hard-line stances on immigration and Islam in Dutch society.
- However, both Yeşilgöz-Zegerius and Omtzigt have both acknowledged the PVV's win, and could agree that joining Wilders' party in gov't and acting as a moderating force, potentially even demanding Wilders does not become PM, would be beneficial.
- The other early option would be a four-party gov't around the centre of the political landscape involving the VVD, NSC, the social democrat/environmentalist GreenLeft/Labour Party (GL-PvdA) alliance, and the liberal Democrats 66 (D66). This coalition would hold a narrow majority with 78 seats.
- In this scenario it is unlikely the VVD would allow GL-PvdA head Frans Timmermans to serve as PM despite leading the largest party in the coalition. Instead, Omtzigt could be seen as an acceptable compromise.
Source: NOS.nl, MNI. PVV-Party for Freedom; GL-PvdA-GreenLeft-Labour Party; VVD-People's Party for Freedom and Democracy; NSC-New Social Contract; D66-Democrats 66; BBB-Farmers'-Citizen Alliance; CDA-Christian Democratic Appeal; SP-Socialist Party; DENK-Together; FvD-Forum for Democracy; PvdD-Party for the Animals; SGP-Reformed Political Party; CU-Christian Union
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.