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Focus Survey Raises 2023 Year-End Selic Estimate, COPOM in Focus

BRAZIL
  • As of writing, 29/30 surveyed analysts are expecting the Copom to hike rates by 50bp on Wednesday to 13.75%, with some pointing to the fact this may be the last of the current tightening cycle that began in March 2021 when rates were at 2.00%.
  • With most recent inflation data dipping from 12.04% to 11.39%, the bar for additional hikes is likely to have risen and the BCB’s guidance will be closely scrutinised.
    • Our full preview with analyst views will be published on Tuesday.
  • The latest BCB Focus Survey shows another reduction in 2022 inflation forecasts, however, the 2023 year-end selic rate forecast was increased by 25bps:
    • Economists forecast 7.15% 2022 inflation; prior 7.30%
    • Economists forecast 5.33% 2023 inflation; prior 5.30%
    • Economists forecast 1.97% 2022 GDP; prior 1.93%
    • Economists forecast 0.40% 2023 GDP; prior 0.49%
    • Economists see 13.75% 2022 year-end selic; prior 13.75%
    • Economists see 11% 2023 year-end selic; prior 10.75% (BBG)
  • The Brazilian government published a decree to cut IPI tax by 35% for most products manufactured in the country, according a statement published by the Economy Ministry. (BBG)
    • Products manufactures on free zone of Manaus were exempted and measure also extends to 24.74% car IPI tax cut.
    • Ministry said that measure will have a positive impact on GDP and increase competitiveness.
  • 1900BST/1400ET: Brazil Economy Ministry releases trade balance for July followed by a press conference.
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