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Focus Survey Revises Inflation Forecasts Higher, Downgrades 2023 Growth

BRAZIL
  • This week the Copom will meet on Wednesday where the committee are likely to implement another 150bp hike, bringing the Selic rate to 10.75%.
  • Today’s results from the latest BCB Focus Survey highlights the persistence of inflationary pressures with both year-end 2022 and 2023 expectations being revised higher once more. Additionally, 2023 GDP projections were revised 14bps lower:
    • Brazil economists forecast 5.38% 2022 inflation; prior 5.15%
    • Brazil economists forecast 3.50% 2023 inflation; prior 3.40%
    • Brazil economists forecast 0.30% 2022 GDP; prior 0.29%
    • Brazil economists forecast 1.55% 2023 GDP; prior 1.69%
    • Brazil economists see 11.75% 2022 year-end selic; prior 11.75%
    • Brazil economists see 8% 2023 year-end selic; prior 8%
  • Brazil’s congress is set to return from recess this week, which may increase the flow of political headlines. Market participants will pay close attention to any developments surrounding how to reduce inflation pressure caused by high fuel prices.
    • Government was said to be considering cutting federal taxes on some fuels and/or creating a fund to curb volatility of oil prices in international markets. (BBG)
  • President Jair Bolsonaro defied a court order to appear for questioning Friday about his attacks on Brazil's electronic voting system, opening up another front in his clash with Brazil's judicial branch.
    • A Supreme Court judge had ordered the far-right leader to appear at the headquarters of the federal police in Brasilia.
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