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Focus Survey Should Bolster Expectations For Easing Cycle To Commence

BRAZIL
  • The 2023 year-end figure was most likely expected to drop further following last week’s headline IPCA inflation dropping to 3.94% Y/y, below median surveyed predictions. The more notable information here is the adjustment at longer horizons with the year-end 2026 even coming down to 3.88% from 4.00%.
  • The data should provide further support to the relief rally across the DI curve, which has seen contracts expiring in Jan 27 fall as much as 277bps from the March peak. BCB rhetoric in recent weeks and the explicit mentions within Copom statements to medium- & longer-term inflation expectations add to the significance of these adjustments in the Focus survey. While it may still be premature for a rate cut in June, the potential for a dovish pivot within the board’s language may significantly bolster expectations for a move on August 02, something that would also be welcomed by the administration.
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