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UK: Following last night's parliamentary votes, which denied the gov't their
desired plan to seek to pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill in 3 days, betting
markets are reflecting the common view that Brexit will now be delayed.
- Data from Betfair now give just a 33% probability of the UK leaving between
July and December 2019 i.e. the 31 Oct deadline. This is down from a 47.4%
chance at 1300BSt yesterday and 57.1% chance on Oct 19.
- Conversely, bettors have piled onto a Brexit date from Jan to June 2020 i.e.
the Jan 31 date proposed in the letter sent by PM to European Council requesting
extension. Chances of this scenario have risen from 30.8% yesterday at 1300BSt
to 44% at pixel.
- Betting markets still pricing in a low probability of no Brexit before 2022,
at just 15%, down from a peak of 27.2% in late September.