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GILTS: Following Peers Lower

GILTS

Gilts follow core global FI peers lower at the open, with spillover from the previously covered technical break in Bunds seemingly playing a part.

  • Little in the way of news flow to trigger this morning’s weakness in core global FI markets.
  • Futures -19 at 95.57 vs. lows of 95.45.
  • Initial support at the Dec 4 low (95.49) pierced. Fresh downside would expose the November 28 low (95.17), although the short-term bullish corrective phase in the contract remains intact.
  • Yields 1.0-2.5bp higher, 10s lead the sell off.
  • Spread to Bunds 1bp wider at ~216bp, sticking to the recent range. 220bp caps, while stickier UK inflation and fiscal/issuance risks in the UK limit pullbacks.
  • SONIA futures a little softer given the weakness in bonds, last flat to -2.5.
  • BoE-dated OIS prices 82bp of cuts through ’25 vs. 84bp at yesterday’s close/early today.
  • Supply-wise, the DMO will sell GBP1.5bln of the Nov-33 I/L line this morning.
  • Little of note on the UK data calendar today, which will leave focus on cross-market spillover and the U.S. CPI release.
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Gilts follow core global FI peers lower at the open, with spillover from the previously covered technical break in Bunds seemingly playing a part.

  • Little in the way of news flow to trigger this morning’s weakness in core global FI markets.
  • Futures -19 at 95.57 vs. lows of 95.45.
  • Initial support at the Dec 4 low (95.49) pierced. Fresh downside would expose the November 28 low (95.17), although the short-term bullish corrective phase in the contract remains intact.
  • Yields 1.0-2.5bp higher, 10s lead the sell off.
  • Spread to Bunds 1bp wider at ~216bp, sticking to the recent range. 220bp caps, while stickier UK inflation and fiscal/issuance risks in the UK limit pullbacks.
  • SONIA futures a little softer given the weakness in bonds, last flat to -2.5.
  • BoE-dated OIS prices 82bp of cuts through ’25 vs. 84bp at yesterday’s close/early today.
  • Supply-wise, the DMO will sell GBP1.5bln of the Nov-33 I/L line this morning.
  • Little of note on the UK data calendar today, which will leave focus on cross-market spillover and the U.S. CPI release.