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Following U.S. Cues Post-NFPs

STIR

UK STIRs are happy to take their cues from the U.S. rates space post-NFPs, with the initial hawkish moves seen in the wake of the data being pared back.

  • Still, UK STIRs continue to present a meaningfully less dovish picture vs. what was seen at yesterday’s close.
  • SONIA futures are flat to -16.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~121bp of easing priced through ’24, ~5bp off post-NFP extremes. Further forwards, 17bp of cuts are priced through the May MPC.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-245.197+1.0
Mar-245.144-4.3
May-245.015-17.2
Jun-244.830-35.7
Aug-244.590-59.7
Sep-244.356-83.1
Nov-244.125-106.2
Dec-243.975-121.2
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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