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FOMC Balance Sheet Normalization Principles And Plans - Text>
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following is a Federal Reserve note
regarding balances sheet normalization released Wednesday with the
statement of the FOMC after its March 19-20 meeting:
In light of its discussions at previous meetings and the progress
in normalizing the size of the Federal Reserve's securities holdings and
the level of reserves in the banking system, all participants agreed
that it is appropriate at this time for the Committee to provide
additional information regarding its plans for the size of its
securities holdings and the transition to the longer-run operating
regime. At its January meeting, the Committee stated that it intends to
continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample
supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal
funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily
through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates and in
which active management of the supply of reserves is not required. The
Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation and Balance Sheet
Normalization released in January as well as the principles and plans
listed below together revise and replace the Committee's earlier Policy
Normalization Principles and Plans.
To ensure a smooth transition to the longer-run level of reserves
consistent with efficient and effective policy implementation, the
Committee intends to slow the pace of the decline in reserves over
coming quarters provided that the economy and money market conditions
evolve about as expected.
The Committee intends to slow the reduction of its holdings of
Treasury securities by reducing the cap on monthly redemptions from the
current level of $30 billion to $15 billion beginning in May 2019.
The Committee intends to conclude the reduction of its aggregate
securities holdings in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) at the end
of September 2019.
The Committee intends to continue to allow its holdings of agency
debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to decline, consistent
with the aim of holding primarily Treasury securities in the longer run.
- Beginning in October 2019, principal payments received from
agency debt and agency MBS will be reinvested in Treasury securities
subject to a maximum amount of $20 billion per month; any principal
payments in excess of that maximum will continue to be reinvested in
agency MBS.
- Principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS below the $20
billion maximum will initially be invested in Treasury securities across
a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of
Treasury securities outstanding; the Committee will revisit this
reinvestment plan in connection with its deliberations regarding the
longer-run composition of the SOMA portfolio.
- It continues to be the Committee's view that limited sales of
agency MBS might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or eliminate
residual holdings. The timing and pace of any sales would be
communicated to the public well in advance.
The average level of reserves after the FOMC has concluded the
reduction of its aggregate securities holdings at the end of September
will likely still be somewhat above the level of reserves necessary to
efficiently and effectively implement monetary policy.
- In that case, the Committee currently anticipates that it will
likely hold the size of the SOMA portfolio roughly constant for a time.
During such a period, persistent gradual increases in currency and other
non-reserve liabilities would be accompanied by corresponding gradual
declines in reserve balances to a level consistent with efficient and
effective implementation of monetary policy.
When the Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to
this level, the SOMA portfolio will hold no more securities than
necessary for efficient and effective policy implementation. Once that
point is reached, the Committee will begin increasing its securities
holdings to keep pace with trend growth of the Federal Reserve's
non-reserve liabilities and maintain an appropriate level of reserves in
the system.
--MNI Washington Bureau, Tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: dcoffice@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MT$$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.