Upcoming FOMC Speak Could Provide More Clarity On Taper Timing

Comments today by KC Fed Pres George and Boston's Rosengren, Wednesday by Gov Brainard, and Thursday by Chair Powell, could give further insight into latest Fed thinking about tapering Tsy purchases by year-end. Here's where the 18 members of the FOMC appear to be on taper timing right now:

• In the "not 2021" camp (1): VC Clarida noted this week he doesn't see tapering before 2022, though he also said his forecasts hadn't accounted for a fresh round of fiscal stimulus post-Georgia elections.
• Probably also in the "not 2021" camp, though we don't have explicit comments as such (4): Powell, Brainard, Williams, Kashkari.
• In the "might"/"could see" 2021 taper camp (5): Atlanta's Bostic (who also sees Fed funds liftoff as early as late 2022), Chicago's Evans, Philly's Harker, Dallas' Kaplan, Cleveland's Mester.
• In the explicitly non-committal camp (2): Richmond's Barkin (we've given outcome guidance not date guidance so I couldn't tell you the day"), StL's Bullard ("inappropriate to tie things down to a specific date").
• In the unknown camp (6): George, Rosengren, Quarles, Bowman, Waller, Daly.
• Recall, the Dec FOMC minutes said that "A number of participants noted that, once [substantial further progress on the dual mandate] had been attained, a gradual tapering of purchases could begin and the process there after could generally follow a sequence similar to the one implemented during the large-scale purchase program in 2013 and 2014.""