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Foreign Participation In SAGBs Falls off a Cliff Post-FOMC

EMERGING MARKETS
  • SA's SABO index dipped firmly below the zero line last week as investors pulled out of risk assets following a more hawkish than expected FOMC meeting.
  • Optimism in SAGBs has turned sharply following the FOMC and as covid-19 cases surge locally, bringing forward concerns of an aggravated third wave.
  • The index is trading around March levels near the -5k mark, but well short of the march 2020 lows below 10k.
  • M/m the local SAGB curve a bear flattened with the 6m-2Y portion of the curve most offered (+27-41bp), while the back end of the curve remains marginally lower (-15-17bp) in 15-30Y yields.
  • Nevertheless, the sell side remains constructive on SAGBs over the medium-term, given muted inflation dynamics and strong real yields – and should see foreign participation returning on bouts of positive risk sentiment and hunt for yield.


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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