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FOREX: EUR Favoured in Early Europe Trade, But Conviction Lacking

FOREX
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  • The EUR trades well, rising against most others in G10 on relatively shallow price action.  A pick up in volumes coincided with the European open, and aided the recovery in EUR. Over 2k contracts traded inside two minutes at 0922GMT across EUR futures, for a cash equivalent of ~$300mln and the best activity of the session so far.
  • The resultant EUR/GBP highs puts the cross at the best level since Nov06, which narrows the gap with 0.8448, a break above which would resume the upleg posted off multi-year range-defining support at the ~0.83 handle.
  • The JPY is the weakest, helping USD/JPY gravitate back toward the Y155.00 handle, with the currency receiving little support from an appearance from BoJ's Ueda, who declined to provide a clear indication or time-linked path for the next BoJ rate hike.
  • Market focus remains on Trump's cabinet picks, with the Treasury Secretary position still up for grabs. Latest reports suggest that Trump's shortlist is growing, and he is to hold interviews this week with the leading candidates, including (but not limited to) Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan. Their perceived support for Trump's tariff regime will prove key to any market reaction on the formal appointment.
  • The speaker schedule is the focus ahead, with appearances from ECB's Lane, Stournaras, Vujcic and Lagarde, as well as BoE's Greene on the docket. Fedspeak just sees Fed's Goolsbee providing welcome remarks.
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  • The EUR trades well, rising against most others in G10 on relatively shallow price action.  A pick up in volumes coincided with the European open, and aided the recovery in EUR. Over 2k contracts traded inside two minutes at 0922GMT across EUR futures, for a cash equivalent of ~$300mln and the best activity of the session so far.
  • The resultant EUR/GBP highs puts the cross at the best level since Nov06, which narrows the gap with 0.8448, a break above which would resume the upleg posted off multi-year range-defining support at the ~0.83 handle.
  • The JPY is the weakest, helping USD/JPY gravitate back toward the Y155.00 handle, with the currency receiving little support from an appearance from BoJ's Ueda, who declined to provide a clear indication or time-linked path for the next BoJ rate hike.
  • Market focus remains on Trump's cabinet picks, with the Treasury Secretary position still up for grabs. Latest reports suggest that Trump's shortlist is growing, and he is to hold interviews this week with the leading candidates, including (but not limited to) Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan. Their perceived support for Trump's tariff regime will prove key to any market reaction on the formal appointment.
  • The speaker schedule is the focus ahead, with appearances from ECB's Lane, Stournaras, Vujcic and Lagarde, as well as BoE's Greene on the docket. Fedspeak just sees Fed's Goolsbee providing welcome remarks.