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FOREX: EUR Resilient to French Political Prospects

FOREX
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  • With a censure motion tabled in French Parliament, focus remains on the fragility of the French government, with betting markets seeing PM Barnier very likely to lose - thereby ensuring a collapse of the Barnier-led coalition. Currency markets are taking the uncertainty in its stride, with the single currency holding up well, and aiding the recovery off yesterday's lows for EUR/GBP - which trades back above the 0.8300 level.
  • JPY is the poorest performer in G10, fading against all others as markets take profit on the recent rally. EUR/JPY is off monthly lows but the overarching downtrend remains. A number of retracement points have been cleared on the recent leg lower, and further losses would strengthen the bearish theme to open 155.15, the Sep 16 low.
  • The belly of the US yield curve has edged higher through Asia-Pac hours, however the USD is yet to benefit. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are comfortably off lows, with markets looking toward, and gauging expectations for this Friday's payrolls print.
  • JOLTS jobs data set for October will be the highlight of the Tuesday session, particularly after yesterday's manufacturing ISM data showed the employment sub-component beating expectations. Fed speakers due today include Daly, Kugler and Goolsbee, while ECB's Panetta appears at a Spain-Italy Forum.
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  • With a censure motion tabled in French Parliament, focus remains on the fragility of the French government, with betting markets seeing PM Barnier very likely to lose - thereby ensuring a collapse of the Barnier-led coalition. Currency markets are taking the uncertainty in its stride, with the single currency holding up well, and aiding the recovery off yesterday's lows for EUR/GBP - which trades back above the 0.8300 level.
  • JPY is the poorest performer in G10, fading against all others as markets take profit on the recent rally. EUR/JPY is off monthly lows but the overarching downtrend remains. A number of retracement points have been cleared on the recent leg lower, and further losses would strengthen the bearish theme to open 155.15, the Sep 16 low.
  • The belly of the US yield curve has edged higher through Asia-Pac hours, however the USD is yet to benefit. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are comfortably off lows, with markets looking toward, and gauging expectations for this Friday's payrolls print.
  • JOLTS jobs data set for October will be the highlight of the Tuesday session, particularly after yesterday's manufacturing ISM data showed the employment sub-component beating expectations. Fed speakers due today include Daly, Kugler and Goolsbee, while ECB's Panetta appears at a Spain-Italy Forum.