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FOREX: G10 FX Ranges Contained Amid Thanksgiving Holiday, USDBRL Record High

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  • The Ice Dollar Index consolidated very moderate gains on Thursday, and major G10 pairs have operated in narrow ranges owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday. USDJPY remains an outperformer despite pulling back to 151.50, up 0.29% following its steep declines on Wednesday.
  • Overall, this week’s move lower in USDJPY marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Attention continues to be on a clear break of the 50-day average which would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 150.19 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the topside, the bull trigger is now much higher at 156.75, the Nov 15 high and clearance of this level would be needed to confirm a resumption of the technical uptrend.
  • GBPUSD is hovering towards the upper end of the week’s range just below 1.2700, however, EURUSD operates in mid-range at 1.0550.
  • The most notable moves in currency markets have been in Latin America, with significant appreciation for the Mexican peso countering record weakness for the Brazilian real.
  • For USDMXN, despite a 1% bounce off the lows, spot is consolidating a 1% decline on the session, trading at 20.40 ahead of the APAC crossover. Overnight news of positive discussions between President-Elect Trump and President Sheinbaum have provided the renewed peso optimism, in contrast with the aggressive reaction to tariff rhetoric earlier in the week.
  • In Brazil, markets were unimpressed by the Government’s long-awaited fiscal announcement and USDBRL traded to a record high above 6.00 in its aftermath. 6.0257 and 6.1000 are the next resistance levels, both Fibonacci projections.
  • Eurozone inflation data and Canada GDP are the highlights on Friday’s economic calendar.
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  • The Ice Dollar Index consolidated very moderate gains on Thursday, and major G10 pairs have operated in narrow ranges owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday. USDJPY remains an outperformer despite pulling back to 151.50, up 0.29% following its steep declines on Wednesday.
  • Overall, this week’s move lower in USDJPY marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Attention continues to be on a clear break of the 50-day average which would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 150.19 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the topside, the bull trigger is now much higher at 156.75, the Nov 15 high and clearance of this level would be needed to confirm a resumption of the technical uptrend.
  • GBPUSD is hovering towards the upper end of the week’s range just below 1.2700, however, EURUSD operates in mid-range at 1.0550.
  • The most notable moves in currency markets have been in Latin America, with significant appreciation for the Mexican peso countering record weakness for the Brazilian real.
  • For USDMXN, despite a 1% bounce off the lows, spot is consolidating a 1% decline on the session, trading at 20.40 ahead of the APAC crossover. Overnight news of positive discussions between President-Elect Trump and President Sheinbaum have provided the renewed peso optimism, in contrast with the aggressive reaction to tariff rhetoric earlier in the week.
  • In Brazil, markets were unimpressed by the Government’s long-awaited fiscal announcement and USDBRL traded to a record high above 6.00 in its aftermath. 6.0257 and 6.1000 are the next resistance levels, both Fibonacci projections.
  • Eurozone inflation data and Canada GDP are the highlights on Friday’s economic calendar.