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FOREX: JPY Remains a Concern as TWI Within Reach of Pre-Intervention Low

FOREX
  • The greenback is modestly softer early Monday, reversing a small part of last week's late rally. Despite today's pullback, the USD Index remains well within range of the multi-month highs posted late last week at 105.915.
  • USD weakness has paused USD/JPY's intraday incline - however today's 159.92 print will remain a considerable concern for the Japanese authorities. The JPY trade-weighted index has printed another multi-month low this morning, coming to withing just 0.15% of the prevailing level before the late April intervention phase. Any renewed dollar rally will keep focus on the JPY going forward.
  • EUR trades firmer, helping EUR/USD show above last Friday's highs, but vol space has seen far more action relative to spot prices. EUR vols gapped higher at the open Monday as the very front-end of the curve now captures the first round of the French legislative elections on Sunday - 1wk vols were marked higher to 7.7 points, a ~2 point premium over background average vol this year.
  • The data schedule is typically quiet for a Monday, with just the US Dallas Fed manufacturing data set to cross. This should keep focus on central bank comms, with ECB's Nagel, Villeroy & Schnabel set to speak, as well as Fed's Goolsbee & Daly and BoC's Macklem.
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