MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 25

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CHINA PRESS: Yuan To Reach 17% Of Global Payments By 2035

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Gilt Syndi; IT, DE Due on Tuesday

MNI: GERMANY NOV IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 85.7

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

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FOREX: Markets Sell USD on the Back of Bessent Nod

FOREX
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  • Markets sold the dollar to begin the week, with the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary under Trump providing some relief to markets. His nomination has pinned back concerns that a tariff regime will go too far, too fast, with his views on gradualism likely meaning a more forceful approach on trade will come step-by-step, rather than an abrupt shift.
  • The USD pullback has helped spur short-covering across EUR, which outperforms all others in G10. EUR/USD is testing 1.05, marking a ~160 pip recovery off last week's pullback lows.
  • German IFO data painted a poor picture of the German economy, The print mirrored last week's flash PMI release in that the services sector saw a clear decline - however, in the IFO, also manufacturing went weaker again. Overall, the print underpins the narrative of ongoing weakness in the German economy. The EUR's resilience to the soft data may suggest much of the economic bad news and likely policy response from the ECB is becoming priced in - which should increase the importance of 1.0335 support ahead.
  • With German IFO data cleared, focus shifts to the central bank speaker slate, as appearances are due from ECB's Centeno, Lane, Nagel and Makhlouf. 
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  • Markets sold the dollar to begin the week, with the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary under Trump providing some relief to markets. His nomination has pinned back concerns that a tariff regime will go too far, too fast, with his views on gradualism likely meaning a more forceful approach on trade will come step-by-step, rather than an abrupt shift.
  • The USD pullback has helped spur short-covering across EUR, which outperforms all others in G10. EUR/USD is testing 1.05, marking a ~160 pip recovery off last week's pullback lows.
  • German IFO data painted a poor picture of the German economy, The print mirrored last week's flash PMI release in that the services sector saw a clear decline - however, in the IFO, also manufacturing went weaker again. Overall, the print underpins the narrative of ongoing weakness in the German economy. The EUR's resilience to the soft data may suggest much of the economic bad news and likely policy response from the ECB is becoming priced in - which should increase the importance of 1.0335 support ahead.
  • With German IFO data cleared, focus shifts to the central bank speaker slate, as appearances are due from ECB's Centeno, Lane, Nagel and Makhlouf.