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FOREX: NZD/USD Back Above $0.60, But 200-dma Still a Cap

FOREX
  • NZD is extending an early recovery rally into the NY crossover, and is outperforming broader G10 FX. An appearance from RBNZ's Silk detailed the cautious approach on rates from the central bank and underlined the remaining uncertainty over NZ price pressures ahead.
  • NZD/USD is back above the $0.60 level, but the intraday bounce still faces the short-term bearish momentum pressures, evident in the 50-dma crossing below the 200-dma in early August.
  • The greenback is the poorest performer so far Friday as the dollar retraces a small part of the post-data strength - however the USD Index remains well clear of the cycle lows and horizontal support layered between 102.160-102.270.
  • GBP/USD trades well, and has cleared the weekly highs to touch the best levels of August to narrow the gap with next resistance at 1.2899 - the 61.8% retracement of the downleg posted off the mid-July high at 1.3044. Retail sales data showed an acceleration in consumption over the month of July. However, as was the case with the jobs and inflation numbers earlier in the week, leaves little definitive signal for the BoE's September meeting, at which a further 25bps cut sits as 9bps priced.
  • Focus for the remainder of the Friday session turns to the prelim Uni of Michigan sentiment survey, at which both the 1 year and 5-10 year inflation expectations metrics are expected to moderate by 0.1 ppts. Housing starts and building permits data are also set to cross, as well as appearances from Fed's Goolsbee. 
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