MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, December 12

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FOREX: Scandi Currencies Suffer as Cross-Market Sentiment Remains Shaky

FOREX
  • Fragile market sentiment evident in the lack of any recovery bounce for stocks is keeping currency markets contained, with growth and high beta proxies still trading poorly. Scandi currencies in particular are weaker this morning, with SEK and NOK softer against all others in G10. USD/SEK trades higher for the fifth session in six, while USD/NOK is testing resistance at the confluence of the 100- and 50-dmas at 10.7362-68.
  • As a result of the shakier cross-market sentiment, haven currencies are firmer once again, helping the JPY and CHF higher. The trade-weighted JPY index holds close to recent highs, and a further 1.5% gain would put the currency at its strongest since the intervention-inspired bounce off the July low.
  • The greenback is more mixed, with softer PMI data from both Spain and Italy doing little to trigger conviction in either direction. EUR/USD is firmer above 1.1050, but yesterday's highs remain out of reach for now.  
  • Trade balance data from across the US and Canada is set to start the NA session, but it's the JOLTS Job Openings data that could prove more of a needle mover, given the Fed's acute sensitivity to labour market conditions headed into the September decision.
  • The Bank of Canada rate decision is expected to see a third consecutive 25bps rate cut, putting the overnight lending rate at 4.25% today. The press conference with governor and deputy governor Macklem and Rogers to be carefully watched for any details on the pace of easing ahead.
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