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Forint Among Weakest EMEA Currencies Monday Morning

HUF
EURHUF has started the week on the front foot, fully erasing Friday’s losses. The cross is up ~0.4% at typing and within relatively close proximity to the 389.00 handle. While weakness is noted across all CE3 currencies, the forint is second to only the Israeli Shekel as the weakest currency in the EMEA space overall despite little in the way of domestic news flow.
  • The technical outlook in EURHUF is still bullish with key resistance marked at 394.67, the Aug 3 high. Clearance of this level would open $402.45, the Mar 20 high. On the downside, support is found at the 50-day EMA, intersecting today at 385.40.
  • Market participants will look ahead to CPI data tomorrow morning. The headline figure is seen dropping 4ppt from 16.4% y/y in August to 12.4% in September, primarily on the back of significant disinflationary base effects. Should inflation be more stubborn than expected, the NBH may be more likely to err on the side of caution with smaller rate cuts moving forward.
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